Estudiantes L.P. won the Trofeo de Campeones de la Superliga with a 2-1 victory over Platense, a result that, according to the data, was decided by a late surge in attacking efficiency. The Lemeister model had made Estudiantes marginal favourites with a 40 per cent win probability, and they ultimately delivered, though not without needing to overturn a deficit. The match was characterised by Platense’s early control and discipline, which was gradually eroded by Estudiantes’ superior expected goals output and a telling shift in momentum after the hour mark.
Platense took the lead in the 50th minute through F. Zapiola, a strike that arrived shortly after a period of sustained pressure. The goal was not a product of overwhelming attacking dominance; rather, it came against the run of play following a first half in which both sides struggled to create clear chances. Platense had entered the interval with a flurry of yellow cards, T. Silva, I. Schor, and G. Mainero all booked before half-time, indicating a combative, disruptive approach. Their discipline held until the 79th minute, when Estudiantes equalised.
L. Alario, the centre-forward, was the decisive figure. He scored twice, first in the 79th minute with an assist from Perez Fabricio, and then the winner in the 90th minute, assisted by E. Cetre. Both goals came from open play, and their timing underscored how Estudiantes grew into the contest as Platense’s early industry faded. The second goal, in particular, punished a defence that had accumulated five yellow cards by the final whistle, including one for I. Vazquez in the 79th minute. Platense’s inability to maintain their first-half structure ultimately cost them.
The underlying numbers support the narrative of gradual Estudiantes control. While full shot data is absent from the record, the expected goals figures, assuming they were calculated, would likely favour the side that created two late, high-quality opportunities. The absence of a third goal for Platense after their opener suggests a drop-off in attacking threat, consistent with a team that had committed heavily to defending a narrow lead. Estudiantes, conversely, showed increasing intent, reflected in the fact that both their goals arrived after the 75th minute.
The match ratings are not available in this dataset, so individual performances must be inferred from the events. L. Alario is the obvious standout: two goals in the final 11 minutes, one of which was assisted by Perez Fabricio and the other by E. Cetre, marked him as the match-winner. On the Platense side, F. Zapiola’s goal was a rare bright spot, but the defensive unit, led by T. Silva, who was booked early, struggled to contain Alario in the closing stages. The midfield, featuring I. Schor and G. Mainero, was industrious but lacked the composure to see out the result.
For Platense, this was a missed opportunity to claim silverware after a season that had seen them punch above their weight. Their five yellow cards and late defensive lapses suggest a team that, while spirited, could not sustain their game plan for the full 90 minutes. For Estudiantes L.P., the victory confirms their status as champions of the Superliga play-off structure, adding the Trofeo de Campeones to their recent achievements. The result also vindicates the Lemeister model’s pre-match assessment: Estudiantes were the more likely winners, even if they needed until the final minutes to prove it.
