St Patrick's Athl. v Dundalk

St Patrick's Athl. meet Dundalk in the Premier Division regular season - 25 at Richmond Park, Dublin. The model makes St Patrick's Athl. the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% ST , 30% draw, 32% DUN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 57%. Attacking output favors St Patrick's Athl. on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans St Patrick's Athl. at 55%; double chance reads St Patrick's Athl. or draw 68%, Dundalk or draw 61%.

St Patrick's Athl. arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Dundalk, W 2-1 v Wexford, L 2-4 @ Doncaster, D 1-1 @ Waterford.

Dundalk are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ St Patrick's Athl., W 3-1 @ St Mochta's, L 1-2 v Drogheda United, L 1-2 @ Shelbourne.

St Patrick's Athl. hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.

The market prices ST at 65% implied. Our number sits apart on Dundalk: a 17.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.