Bologna held Inter to a 1-1 draw in the Super Cup semi-final at the King Saud University Stadium in Riyadh, a result that contradicted the pre-match data. The Lemeister model had Inter as clear favourites with a 46 per cent win probability and a projected score of 1-2, but the defending champions could not convert their territorial dominance into a winning lead.
The match began as the model might have predicted. Inter struck in the second minute through M. Thuram, who scored a normal goal with an assist from A. Bastoni. That early strike gave Inter a platform to control proceedings, but Bologna's response was measured and structured. The equaliser arrived in the 35th minute from the penalty spot, scored by R. Orsolini with no assister recorded. That penalty shifted the momentum and set the stage for a disciplined second-half display from Bologna.
Inter's statistical advantage was clear across multiple metrics. They recorded 58 per cent possession, completed 463 passes to Bologna's 331 and maintained an 82 per cent passing accuracy against Bologna's 79 per cent. Their shot volume was notably superior: 14 total attempts to Bologna's eight, with six on target compared with four. Inter generated nine shots from inside the box, suggesting they created high-quality opportunities, while Bologna managed six. The expected goals implied by that shot distribution, though not directly provided, favour Inter strongly. Yet they could not add a second goal.
The primary reason for that failure was Bologna's goalkeeper. Federico Ravaglia earned the highest match rating of any player, an 8.2, and made five saves. His performance was the defining factor in keeping the score level. Inter's goalkeeper, Josep Martínez, made four saves and received a 7.3 rating, reflecting a solid but less influential outing. The difference in goalkeeping output, five saves to four, directly explains why a team with 14 shots and six on target did not win.
The midfield contest was combative. Bologna committed eight fouls, Inter 12, for a total of 20 fouls across the match. No cards were issued, indicating that the physicality was managed within the laws. Bologna's 331 passes and 79 per cent accuracy suggest they attempted to play through the press rather than merely defend deep. Their shot volume of eight, including four on target, was respectable given the possession deficit.
Several Bologna players contributed beyond the goalkeeper. Lewis Ferguson was rated 7.5, the second-highest figure in the match, indicating influence in the middle and final thirds. Emil Holm, Nikola Moro and Giovanni Fabbian each received a 7.0 rating, suggesting steady, unflashy contributions across defence and midfield. For Inter, only Martínez received a noteworthy rating, reflecting a team that created without finishing. M. Thuram's early goal was not reflected in the ratings list, and no Inter outfield player was named among the rated performers.
The result means the semi-final is evenly poised with the teams still level. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-2 win for Inter, and the actual 1-1 draw represents an overperformance by Bologna. Both sides now face the prospect of extra time or a penalty shootout to determine who advances to the final. For Inter, this is a missed opportunity given their statistical dominance; for Bologna, a disciplined defensive display and efficient finishing from the spot have kept their Super Cup hopes alive.
