Where the market is wrong on Portland Timbers v St. Louis City
Portland Timbers meet St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer regular season - 24 at Providence Park, Portland.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans St. Louis City, 68% against 53%. Attacking output favors Portland Timbers on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.9 per match.
Portland Timbers arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Austin, D 1-1 @ Los Angeles FC, W 3-1 v San Diego, L 1-2 @ Chicago Fire.
St. Louis City are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v FC Dallas, W 2-1 v Houston Dynamo, D 1-1 @ Sporting Kansas City, W 3-1 @ San Jose Earthquakes.
St. Louis City hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: St. Louis City 2-1 Portland Timbers.
The market prices POR at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on St. Louis City: a 10.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
