Where the market is wrong on Austin v Philadelphia Union
Austin meet Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer regular season - 21 at Q2 Stadium, Austin.
The baseline ratings are close, 1492 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 47% against 45%. Attacking output favors Philadelphia Union on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 72%, over 2.5 goals around 73%. Draw no bet leans Austin at 50%; double chance reads Austin or draw 64%, Philadelphia Union or draw 64%.
Austin arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Philadelphia Union, W 2-1 @ Seattle Sounders, L 1-2 v FC Dallas, D 1-1 @ Club America.
Philadelphia Union are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Austin, D 2-2 v Inter Miami, W 3-2 @ New York City FC, L 0-2 v Santos Laguna.
Philadelphia Union hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Austin 1-1 Philadelphia Union.
The market prices AUS at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on Austin: a 8.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
