DC United v Toronto FC

DC United meet Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer regular season - 19 at Audi Field, undefined. The model makes DC United the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% DC , 29% draw, 33% TOR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1458 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 47% against 40%. Attacking output favors Toronto FC on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans DC United at 53%; double chance reads DC United or draw 67%, Toronto FC or draw 63%.

DC United arrive patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 9 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Houston Dynamo, D 4-4 v CF Montreal, D 1-1 v St. Louis City, L 1-3 v Chicago Fire.

Toronto FC are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ New England Revolution, D 0-0 @ CF Montreal, L 1-2 @ Chicago Fire, L 1-3 @ Charlotte.

DC United hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Toronto FC 2-0 DC United.

The market prices DC at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on Toronto FC: a 6.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.