Los Angeles Galaxy v St. Louis City

Los Angeles Galaxy meet St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer regular season - 18 at Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson. The model makes St. Louis City the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 33% LOS, 29% draw, 38% ST..

The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1504, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 50%. Attacking output favors St. Louis City on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 63%. Draw no bet leans St. Louis City at 54%; double chance reads Los Angeles Galaxy or draw 62%, St. Louis City or draw 67%.

Los Angeles Galaxy arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Los Angeles FC, W 1-0 v Club America, L 0-3 v El Salvador, D 1-1 v Houston Dynamo.

St. Louis City are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Sporting Kansas City, W 3-0 v Austin, D 2-2 v Houston Dynamo, D 1-1 @ DC United.

St. Louis City hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Los Angeles Galaxy 1-3 St. Louis City.

The market prices LOS at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on St. Louis City: a 7.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 70 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.