Where the market is wrong on Deportivo Recoleta v Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Deportivo Recoleta meet Club Sp. San Lorenzo in the Division Profesional - Clausura clausura - 1 at Estadio Ricardo Gregor, undefined. The model makes Deportivo Recoleta the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 47% DEP, 30% draw, 24% CLU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Deportivo Recoleta, 45% against 33%. Attacking output favors Deportivo Recoleta on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Deportivo Recoleta at 67%; double chance reads Deportivo Recoleta or draw 76%, Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw 53%.
Deportivo Recoleta arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Club Sp. San Lorenzo, W 1-0 @ San Lorenzo, W 2-1 v Club Guarani, D 2-2 @ Deportivo Cuenca.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Deportivo Recoleta, W 1-0 @ 2 de Mayo, D 0-0 v Sportivo Luqueno, W 1-0 v Olimpia.
Deportivo Recoleta hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Deportivo Recoleta 1-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
The market prices DEP at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Deportivo Recoleta: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
