Qarabag progressed to the cup semi-finals with a 3-1 victory over Şamaxı FK at the Azersun Arena, a result that the Lemeister model had rated as a 50% probability for the home side. The margin of victory was built on a decisive five-minute spell shortly after the hour mark, which turned a level contest into a commanding lead. The pre-match projection from the Lemeister model had forecast a 2-0 home win, and while the actual scoreline contained an extra goal for each side, the outcome aligned with the expected path of a home victory. The model had given Şamaxı FK only a 22% chance of progressing, and the visitors were unable to defy those odds.
The match began at a high tempo, and Qarabag struck first through E. Addai in the sixth minute. Addai's opener gave the home side an early platform, though Şamaxı FK responded well enough to draw level before half-time. K. Rossi equalised for the visitors in the 31st minute, restoring parity with a normal goal that brought the away side back into the tie. The score remained 1-1 at the interval, leaving the second period finely balanced. The absence of first-half bookings suggested a disciplined contest up to that point, with neither side resorting to fouls to disrupt the rhythm.
The turning point arrived decisively in the space of two second-half minutes. E. Addai struck again in the 61st minute to restore Qarabag's lead, and within 120 seconds Leandro Andrade added a third to make it 3-1. This quick double effectively ended the contest as a competitive affair, with Şamaxı FK unable to mount a response after falling two goals behind. The timing of the goals was critical: Qarabag scored three times from normal play, while Şamaxı FK managed only one, and none of the four goals carried an assist according to the match record. This suggests that individual finishing, rather than creative build-up play, was the decisive factor on the day.
Discipline became an issue for the visitors as they chased the game. V. Veremeev received a yellow card in the 47th minute, just after the restart, and further bookings followed for Ricardo Fernandes in the 85th minute and A. Tircoveanu in the third minute of stoppage time. In total, Şamaxı FK collected three yellow cards, while Qarabag's defensive record remained clean. The distribution of cards is notable: all three came in the second half, two of them in the final ten minutes of regular and stoppage time, indicating that frustration crept in as the visitors failed to find a way back into the match.
The statistical picture reinforced the home side's superiority, though the data package was limited in scope. With no shot or possession figures available, the primary measure of dominance comes from the goal sequence itself: three goals from normal play against one, with none assisted according to the match record. Qarabag also made five substitutions to Şamaxı FK's four, suggesting depth was not a decisive factor in the outcome. The clean disciplinary sheet for Qarabag further underscores their control, as they avoided the need for tactical fouls that might have invited pressure.
For Şamaxı FK, the defeat ends their cup run at the quarter-final stage, while Qarabag advances to the semi-finals with a performance built on two goals from E. Addai and a rapid second-half double that proved beyond the visitors' capacity to recover from. The home side will now await their semi-final opponent, carrying the momentum of a three-goal performance and a clean disciplinary sheet into the next round. The result also extends Qarabag's positive record in cup competition, where their ability to produce quick bursts of scoring has been a recurring feature of their campaign.
