Sabah FA and Selangor played out a 2-2 draw in the FA Cup semi-finals at Likas Stadium, a result that the Lemeister model had considered unlikely, giving the hosts only a 19 per cent chance of avoiding defeat against a Selangor side tipped with a 54 per cent win probability. The match was decided by the even distribution of goals and the inability of either side to take control from open play, with the statistics ultimately showing a contest where both teams had periods of dominance but neither could sustain them.
Sabah FA took the lead in the 13th minute through A. Mujagic, who scored what was listed as a normal goal. The goal gave the home side a platform, but the match would remain a tight affair for the remainder of the first half. Selangor's response was patient, and they eventually found a way back into the game through an own goal from Sabah FA's D. Ingham in the 65th minute, levelling the score without Selangor having to force a chance of their own.
Selangor then took the lead for the first time in the 80th minute when N. Laine scored a normal goal, putting the visitors ahead with ten minutes remaining. However, Sabah FA showed resilience and equalised in the 90th minute, with A. Mujagic scoring his second goal of the game to make it 2-2. The fact that both of Sabah FA's goals came from the same player underlined his importance, while Selangor's goal from N. Laine was the only one they scored directly, with their other strike coming via an own goal.
The match discipline was relatively clean, with only three yellow cards issued. Selangor's R. Ankrah was booked in the 47th minute, and Q. Cheng followed in the 76th minute, while Sabah FA's D. Tan received a yellow card a minute later in the 77th. The caution count suggests the game was competitive but not overly physical, with the decisive moments coming from goals rather than disciplinary incidents.
With no detailed match statistics or player ratings provided in the data, the analysis is limited to the goals and cards. The lack of possession, shot, or expected goals data means that the narrative is driven entirely by the timing and nature of the goals. Sabah FA's two goals from A. Mujagic, both in the first and final minutes of the match, show a side that struck at the start of each half and then held on through the middle periods. Selangor's equaliser and go-ahead goal came in the latter stages, but they could not protect their lead.
The result leaves the semi-final tie in the balance. A 2-2 draw away from home gives Selangor the advantage of two away goals in the context of the competition, but Sabah FA will take confidence from having come from behind twice. The Lemeister model had projected a 2-0 win for Selangor, but the actual outcome was far closer, with both sides now facing a replay or a second leg depending on the competition's format. The draw sets up a decisive return match where the winner will advance to the final.
