Mercadal v Alcúdia: the model read
Mercadal meet Alcúdia in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 group 11 - 34 at Estadio San Martì, Es Mercadal (Menorca). The model makes Alcúdia the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% MER, 31% draw, 37% ALC.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 40%. Attacking output favors Alcúdia on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 41%. Draw no bet leans Alcúdia at 53%; double chance reads Mercadal or draw 63%, Alcúdia or draw 68%.
Mercadal arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Alcúdia, L 0-7 @ Mallorca II, L 1-6 @ Llosetense, W 1-0 v Platges Calvià.
Alcúdia are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Mercadal, D 1-1 v Binissalem, W 2-0 @ Felanitx, D 2-2 v Peña Deportiva.
Mercadal hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mercadal 3-2 Alcúdia.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
