Zarautz v Derio: the model read
Zarautz meet Derio in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 group 4 - 34 at Estadio Asti Kirol Instalakuntzak, Zarautz. The model makes Derio the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 25% ZAR, 30% draw, 46% DER.
Derio rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1581 to 1400. Recent form leans Derio, 60% against 33%. Attacking output favors Derio on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Derio at 65%; double chance reads Zarautz or draw 54%, Derio or draw 75%.
Zarautz arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Derio, W 2-0 @ Zamudio, D 2-2 @ Touring, L 0-1 v Santurtzi.
Derio are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 2 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Athletic Club, L 0-1 @ Leioa, L 0-1 v Leioa, W 2-0 v Lagun Onak.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Zarautz 0-1 Derio.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
