AZ W took a significant step towards consolidating their position in the Eredivisie Women title race with a 3-2 victory over NAC Breda W at the Rat Verlegh Stadion. The numbers indicate a contest that was decided by AZ’s clinical edge in front of goal and their control of the attacking flow, despite a spirited late rally from the hosts. The Lemeister model had given AZ a 52 per cent win probability and projected a 3-1 away victory, a prediction that proved only marginally cautious as the visitors conceded a late goal but still secured the three points that their overall play merited.
The scoring opened in the 16th minute when NAC Breda’s J. Schneijderberg found the net with a normal goal, giving the home side an early advantage. AZ responded levelly and struck back through J. van Beijeren in the 28th minute, with E. de Vries providing the assist. The visitors then seized control before half-time, as D. van Lunteren scored a normal goal in the 43rd minute to put AZ 2-1 ahead. The pattern continued after the interval: in the 65th minute, E. Bakker converted a normal goal, assisted by D. van Lunteren, extending the lead to 3-1. NAC Breda pulled one back in the 88th minute through J. Visser, but it was too late to alter the result. The sequence of goals shows that NAC Breda struck first but were then overwhelmed by three AZ strikes in a 37-minute period straddling the break.
The statistical story underscores AZ’s superiority in the attacking phases. They registered eight shots to NAC’s five, and put four of those on target against the hosts’ three, giving them a shots-on-target conversion rate of 50 per cent. The expected goals figures, while not provided in detail here, would likely reflect AZ’s greater penetration and higher-quality chances, given that they scored three times from four efforts on target. Possession was not listed in the data, but the shot counts suggest AZ were the more enterprising side, creating more opportunities through sustained pressure. Passing accuracy, also absent from the data, would presumably support a similar narrative of control, though the absence of cards for either side indicates a disciplined contest without reckless challenges. NAC Breda made three substitutions to AZ’s two, perhaps reflecting an attempt to change the game’s flow after falling behind, but the visitors’ defensive organisation held firm until the closing minutes.
In terms of individual performances, the named players on the scoresheet were the decisive figures. J. Schneijderberg and J. Visser were the goal threats for NAC, but the contributions of D. van Lunteren, who scored and assisted, and E. Bakker, who scored, were pivotal for AZ. D. van Lunteren’s direct involvement in two of the three away goals marks her as the outstanding performer, while J. van Beijeren’s equaliser and E. de Vries’s assist also underlined AZ’s attacking depth. Without match ratings in the data, the narrative relies on the goals and assists as the key performance indicators, and on that measure AZ’s attacking quartet clearly outperformed their NAC counterparts.
The result moves AZ W to 33 points from 16 matches, keeping them within touching distance of the Eredivisie Women summit and maintaining pressure on the league leaders. For NAC Breda W, this defeat leaves them on 19 points, mid-table and with work to do to mount a serious challenge for European qualification. The Lemeister model’s pre-match assessment, which gave AZ a 52 per cent win probability and projected a 3-1 scoreline, broadly aligned with the outcome: the visitors dominated the middle portion of the game and created enough chances to win comfortably, even if a late concession narrowed the final margin.
