Al-Qadisiyah FC’s 3-1 victory over Al-Nassr in the Pro League’s 31st round was a result thoroughly backed by the data, with the home side creating a far higher quality of chances despite equal shot counts. The Lemeister model had entered the match favouring Al-Nassr with a 42 percent win probability, but Al-Qadisiyah overturned that projection through ruthless efficiency in the final third. The home team finished with an expected goals total of 2.54 against Al-Nassr’s 0.58, a chasm that told the story of the contest far more accurately than the total shots tally of 12 each. Al-Qadisiyah also held a narrow advantage in possession at 52 percent and completed more passes, 329 from 390 at 84 percent accuracy, compared to Al-Nassr’s 296 from 362 at 82 percent.
The opening goal arrived in the 24th minute when M. Abu Al Shamat found the net, assisted by C. Bonsu Baah, giving the home side an early lead. Al-Nassr responded through Joao Felix in the 39th minute, with M. Brozovic providing the assist, to level the score at 1-1 heading into the interval. Al-Qadisiyah regained the lead shortly after the restart, M. Al Juwayr scoring in the 55th minute from J. Quinones’ assist. Quinones then added a third goal in the 78th minute, unassisted, to seal the outcome and put the result beyond doubt. The match also featured four yellow cards: Iñigo Martinez in the 41st minute and Joao Felix in the 49th minute for Al-Nassr, Ayman Yahya in the 89th minute for the visitors, and Otávio for Al-Qadisiyah in the 46th minute.
Al-Qadisiyah’s attacking efficiency was the decisive factor in the contest. While both sides recorded 12 total shots, the home side directed six of theirs on target compared to only two for Al-Nassr, a three-to-one advantage that explained the final scoreline. Al-Qadisiyah also generated 11 shots from inside the penalty area against seven for Al-Nassr, highlighting their ability to create high-quality chances in dangerous positions. The away side managed six blocked shots, indicating that much of their attacking work was thwarted before it could trouble the goalkeeper, while Al-Qadisiyah had only three blocked. Al-Nassr’s goalkeeper made three saves, while Al-Qadisiyah’s made one, a statistic that underscores the superior quality of the home side’s attempts on goal.
The player ratings reflected the depth of Al-Qadisiyah’s performance. Musab Al Juwayr was the standout performer, earning a match rating of 8.2 for his goal and creative influence in midfield. Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat, Otávio, and Julián Quiñones each received a 7.9, underlining the collective contribution across the pitch. Quiñones’ goal and assist made him a central figure in the victory, while Christopher Baah, with a rating of 7.3, and Gastón Álvarez, rated 7.5, also contributed solidly to the home side’s control of the game. Al-Nassr’s reliance on Joao Felix’s first-half equaliser was not enough to alter the contest’s trajectory, as their attacking threat diminished after the break and they failed to register a shot on target in the second half.
The result carries significant implications in the Pro League title race. Al-Qadisiyah’s three points, built on a commanding expected goals performance, strengthen their position in the upper reaches of the table and demonstrate their ability to dominate against strong opposition. For Al-Nassr, the defeat represents a setback, particularly given that they were pre-match favourites according to the Lemeister model. The substantial gap in expected goals will be a concern for the visitors, as it suggests a clear tactical superiority from the home side that the scoreline accurately reflected. Al-Qadisiyah’s ability to convert chances while limiting Al-Nassr to low-quality opportunities, evidenced by the 2.54 to 0.58 expected goals gap, sets a benchmark for the closing stages of the regular season.
