Castanet v Toulouse II: the model read
Castanet meet Toulouse II in the National 3 - Group A group a - 26 at Complexe Sportif de Lautard, Castanet-Tolosan. The model makes Toulouse II the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 30% CAS, 33% draw, 37% TOU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 48%. Attacking output favors Toulouse II on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 30%. Draw no bet leans Toulouse II at 56%; double chance reads Castanet or draw 63%, Toulouse II or draw 70%.
Castanet arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Toulouse II, L 0-1 @ SAG Cestas, W 2-0 v Agde, L 1-2 @ Colomiers.
Toulouse II are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Castanet, W 3-2 v Bassin d'Arcachon Sud, W 1-0 @ Anglet Genets, L 0-1 v Blagnac.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Castanet 1-1 Toulouse II.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
