Trofense v Varzim: the model read
Trofense meet Varzim in the Liga 3 regular season - 5 at Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, Trofa. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 31% TRO, 35% draw, 34% VAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 40%. Attacking output favors Varzim on expected goals, 1.0 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 26%, over 2.5 goals around 17%. Draw no bet leans Varzim at 53%; double chance reads Trofense or draw 66%, Varzim or draw 69%.
Trofense arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 1 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Academica, D 1-1 v Guimaraes B, D 0-0 v Amarante, L 0-1 @ Mafra.
Varzim are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Tondela, D 2-2 @ União Santarém, L 1-2 v CF Os Belenenses, L 0-1 @ Academica.
Trofense hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Trofense 0-1 Varzim.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
