England W v Italy W: the model read
England W meet Italy W in the UEFA Championship - Women semi-finals at Stade de Genève, Lancy. The model makes England W the most likely outcome at 51%, with the full read 51% ENG, 26% draw, 23% ITA.
England W rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1661 to 1466. Recent form leans England W, 70% against 45%. Attacking output favors England W on expected goals, 3.0 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 76%. Draw no bet leans England W at 69%; double chance reads England W or draw 77%, Italy W or draw 49%.
England W arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Ukraine W, L 0-4 @ Spain W, W 1-0 @ Iceland W, W 1-0 v Spain W.
Italy W are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 12 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Sweden W, W 3-0 v Serbia W, D 0-0 @ Denmark W, W 6-0 @ Serbia W.
England W hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: England W 2-1 Italy W.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
