Energie Cottbus dominated possession and created more chances but had to settle for a 1-1 draw against SSV Ulm 1846 at the LEAG Energie Stadion. The numbers tell a clear story of a home side that controlled the ball for 69% of the match and recorded 14 shots to Ulm's six, yet was unable to turn that dominance into maximum points. The Lemeister model had projected a 2-1 home win with Energie Cottbus as 39% favourites, but the final scoreline reflected a game in which the visitors' early breakthrough and disciplined defending earned them a share of the spoils.
Ulm struck first in the 21st minute. L. Dajaku found the net with an assist from L. Roser, giving the visitors a lead that would stand until the final quarter of the match. The goal came from one of only two shots on target for Ulm across the entire 90 minutes, underlining its clinical nature. The rest of the first half saw Energie Cottbus dominate the ball but struggle to carve out clear-cut chances, managing just two shots on target from their 14 attempts overall, with seven of those coming from inside the box.
The home side's equaliser arrived in the 77th minute when Erik Engelhardt scored, Merveille Biankadi providing the assist. It was a deserved reward for a team that generated 1.3 expected goals to Ulm's 0.7, suggesting they created the higher-quality opportunities overall. Engelhardt was one of several Energie Cottbus players to earn strong individual ratings from the Lemeister data, receiving a 7.3 alongside Lukas Michelbrink and Biankadi. The match saw three yellow cards, all for Ulm: Luca Bazzoli in the 54th minute, Marcel Seegert in the 65th, and Dennis Dressel in the 80th.
Possession statistics underscored the imbalance in approach. Energie Cottbus completed 505 of their 585 passes at an 86% accuracy rate, while Ulm managed 249 passes with 72% accuracy. The home side also forced seven corners to Ulm's nine, a narrow advantage that reflected the visitors' ability to clear their lines under pressure. Despite the disparity in possession and total shots, both goalkeepers made just a single save each, indicating that while Energie Cottbus controlled the game, they rarely truly tested the Ulm goalkeeper from close range.
Leon Dajaku was the standout performer on the pitch, earning an 8.0 rating for his goal and overall contribution. For the home side, Can Yahya Moustfa led the ratings with a 7.7, followed by Tolcay Ciğerci on 7.6, with Michelbrink, Engelhardt and Biankadi all on 7.3. These ratings suggest a spread of solid individual performances from the hosts, but without the cutting edge to convert their territorial advantage into more than a single goal.
The result leaves both sides with a point from a match that Energie Cottbus will feel they should have won. Their 1.3 xG and 69% possession point to a team that created enough to take three points, but Ulm's early goal and resilient defending ensured they left with a draw. For SSV Ulm 1846, the result represents a valuable away point, built on an efficient early finish and a disciplined defensive display that limited the home side to just two shots on target from 14 attempts.
