Polessya scored twice in the final 20 minutes to beat Oleksandria 2-1, a result the Lemeister model had given a 53 per cent probability, though the pre-match projection of a 3-0 home win proved overly optimistic. The underlying numbers told a story of territorial dominance that required two late strikes to convert into points.
M. Gayduchyk opened the scoring for Polessya in the 71st minute. The goal arrived after a sustained period of home pressure, during which Polessya had accumulated the majority of possession and the bulk of the shots. By that stage, the data suggested Polessya had created the better chances, with a higher expected goals total reflecting the quality of opportunities they had fashioned. Gayduchyk's strike was the culmination of that control, though the assist column was blank, leaving the precise nature of the build-up unrecorded.
Oleksandria responded 11 minutes later, levelling through P. Yade. S. Buletsa was credited with the assist. It was a rare moment of incision for the visitors, who had been restricted to limited attacking output throughout the match. The equaliser came against the run of play but demonstrated the efficiency Oleksandria needed to stay in the contest. Their expected goals figure was markedly lower than Polessya's, underlining how seldom they created high-quality openings.
The winner arrived in the 90th minute, when O. Filippov found the net for Polessya. O. Gutsulyak provided the assist. It was a dramatic conclusion to a contest the statistical record suggested the home side had deserved, particularly on the basis of their superior shot count and expected goals advantage. The timing of the goal left Oleksandria no opportunity to respond.
Possession was dominated by Polessya, who also led in total shots and shots on target. Their passing numbers were correspondingly higher, reflecting the territorial control they exerted throughout the match. Oleksandria struggled to build sustained attacks and their expected goals figure was markedly lower, underlining how rarely they created high-quality chances. The clean disciplinary record, with no yellow or red cards for either side, indicated a contest that remained competitive without spilling into ill-discipline. Both sides made five substitutions, though the identities of the substitutes are not recorded.
The match rating data is not available, so individual performances cannot be assessed with precision. However, the goalscorers Gayduchyk and Filippov, and the assister Gutsulyak, were clearly influential in the decisive moments. For Oleksandria, Yade took his chance well, and Buletsa showed quality in the build-up to the equaliser. The absence of ratings leaves a gap in the analysis, but the statistical profile suggests a match in which Polessya's collective dominance ultimately told.
The result keeps Polessya in contention at the sharp end of the Premier League table, while Oleksandria remain in the mid-table pack. The Lemeister model had projected a 3-0 win for the home side, so the narrow margin and the late winner were both slightly more dramatic than the pre-match numbers predicted. Polessya will be pleased with the three points, but the data suggests they should have made the game safe earlier, with their expected goals advantage indicating a level of control that the scoreline did not fully reflect. For Oleksandria, the resilience shown in equalising will offer some encouragement, but the underlying numbers confirm they were second best for long periods.
