MexicoUSA v Mexico: the model read
USA meet Mexico in the CONCACAF Gold Cup final at NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Mexico, 70% against 60%. Attacking output favors USA on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
USA arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Belgium, W 2-0 v Bosnia & Herzegovina, L 2-3 @ Türkiye, W 2-0 v Australia.
Mexico are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v England, W 2-0 v Ecuador, W 3-0 @ Czechia, W 1-0 v South Korea.
USA hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: USA 1-2 Mexico.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
