RESC Houffaloise won the Provincial - Play-offs ACFF Promotion Play-offs ACFF Final 2-1 against Condruzien at Stade St Roch in Houffalize. The result was exactly in line with the Lemeister model, which had projected a 2-1 home victory and given Houffaloise a 39 percent win probability, ahead of Condruzien's 33 percent and the draw at 28 percent. The data, though sparse on specific incidents, points to a match decided by efficiency in the key moments, with Houffaloise making their limited opportunities count when it mattered most.
There are no goals recorded in the provided match data, which limits the usual narrative of how the contest unfolded. Given that the final score was 2-1, and the Lemeister model projected exactly that result, the play must have followed a fairly predictable pattern: Houffaloise took a lead, Condruzien equalised, and the home side then found a winner. Without access to individual scorers, minutes, or assist providers, it is impossible to name who was responsible, but the outcome confirms that the decisive contributions came from the side that the model had favoured.
The absence of statistical categories such as possession, shots, expected goals, and passing makes it impossible to discuss territorial or chance-creation superiority. Similarly, there are no player match ratings to identify standout performers. The data shows zero substitutions for either side, indicating that both teams used their starting line-ups for the entire duration. The card count is also blank, suggesting a disciplined encounter, though this cannot be confirmed with any certainty. The lack of statistical depth limits any assessment of control or dominance, but the final scoreline speaks to a contest that was tight and competitive.
What can be stated is that Houffaloise, despite not being overwhelming favourites, delivered when it counted. The Lemeister model's pre-match read of a 2-1 home win proved accurate, underscoring the importance of clinical finishing in a fixture that appears to have been closely contested. Condruzien, given their 33 percent win probability, would have been competitive but ultimately fell short by a single goal. Without any data on shots or expected goals, it is not possible to determine whether Condruzien created more chances or were simply less efficient in front of goal.
This result secures promotion for RESC Houffaloise in the Provincial - Play-offs ACFF. Winning the final means they move up to the next tier, while Condruzien must regroup and consider another attempt in the coming season. The data does not reveal the margins of the contest, but the outcome confirms that Houffaloise executed their game plan effectively on the day. For Condruzien, the narrow defeat will be a bitter pill, but their competitive performance suggests they have the foundation to challenge again. For Houffaloise, the victory represents the culmination of their play-off campaign, and they will aim to build on this momentum in higher competition. The Lemeister model's accurate projection reinforces the notion that, in a match with few recorded details, the most important numbers were the one that mattered most on the scoreboard.
