Atletico-MG delivered a commanding 4-0 victory over Maringá in the third round of the Copa do Brasil, a result that was far more emphatic than the Lemeister model's pre-match read. The model had forecast a narrow edge for the visitors, giving Maringá a 39% win probability and projecting a 2-1 away victory, but the home side's clinical second-half performance rendered those projections obsolete, as they scored four unanswered goals in the final 40 minutes.
The goalless first half was a tale of domination without reward for Atletico-MG. They held 66% possession and recorded 22 total shots across the match, but Maringá's goalkeeper made six saves in total, keeping the game level at the interval. The breakthrough came in the 49th minute when Rubens scored from Tomás Cuello's assist, and Patrick doubled the lead just three minutes later from Natanael's pass. This quickfire double effectively broke Maringá's resistance, shifting the momentum decisively. Rony added a third in the 78th minute, assisted by Gustavo Scarpa, and Lyanco completed the scoring in the 88th minute from Bernard's pass, the final goal arriving a minute after Maringá's Rhuan had been sent off for a second yellow card.
The statistical chasm between the sides confirms the one-sided nature of the contest. Atletico-MG dominated possession with 66%, completing 266 of 351 passes at a 76% accuracy rate, while Maringá managed only 112 successful passes from 183 attempts at 61%. The home side registered 22 total shots, 10 on target, and generated 12 attempts from inside the box, underscoring their ability to create high-quality opportunities. Maringá had 10 shots but only 3 on target, with the home goalkeeper required to make just three saves. The corner count was close at 6-5, but the foul count told a different story: Maringá committed 17 fouls to Atletico-MG's 11, resulting in four yellow cards and Rhuan's red, which undermined their defensive structure in the closing stages.
The match ratings highlighted Lyanco as the outstanding performer, earning an 8.9 for his goal and his role in a defensive unit that kept a clean sheet. Rubens, scorer of the opening goal, rated 8.2, reflecting his contribution to breaking the deadlock. Rony, Gustavo Scarpa, and Tomás Cuello each posted a 7.9, demonstrating consistent influence across the final third through both goal involvement and creative passing, Scarpa provided an assist and Cuello set up the first goal. Patrick, who scored the second, earned a 7.7, rounding out a strong attacking collective. The efficiency of Atletico-MG's forward line was clear: they had 10 shots on target, converted into four goals, while Maringá's three shots on target yielded nothing.
The win propels Atletico-MG into the next stage of the Copa do Brasil, demonstrating the depth and effectiveness expected of a side competing across multiple competitions. The performance was built on a controlled first half and a ruthless second half, with the home side punishing Maringá's discipline issues and capitalising on their numerical advantage in the final minutes. For Maringá, the result ends their cup run, with the red card and the concession of four goals in the final 40 minutes encapsulating the gulf in quality. The data underlined a complete performance from Atletico-MG, who overwhelmed their opponents in possession, shot volume, and expected goals output, leaving no doubt about the deserved nature of the scoreline.
