Macara defeated El Nacional 2-0 at the Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, a result that the Lemeister model had favoured with a 48 per cent probability for the away side. The final scoreline flattered Macara slightly in terms of chances created, but they were clinical where it mattered. Despite having less of the ball, Macara generated more shots and forced the home goalkeeper into more saves, while El Nacional’s superior expected goals figure of 1.86 to 1.65 told a story of missed opportunity in front of goal. The match statistics revealed a contest where El Nacional dictated the tempo but Macara struck with greater precision in the decisive moments.
The breakthrough came in the 40th minute. M. Juambeltz scored for Macara, with M. Viera providing the assist for what was recorded as a normal goal. The visitors then doubled their lead in the 90th minute, F. Paz finishing after an assist from L. Alvarez. These two moments of quality proved decisive against a home side that had the better of possession and the higher expected goals. Macara’s discipline was tested with yellow cards for Luis Ayala in the 25th minute and Jordán Mohor in the 80th minute, but they held firm under pressure.
The statistical picture showed a match where El Nacional dominated territory but not the most dangerous areas. They had 56 per cent possession and completed 308 accurate passes from 389 attempts, both sides posting a 79 per cent completion rate. Yet El Nacional managed only four shots on target from 12 attempts, while Macara had eight on target from 19 total shots. The home side’s four blocked shots hinted at a defence that was willing to put bodies on the line, but it was their own finishing that ultimately let them down. Macara’s 10 shots inside the box compared to El Nacional’s seven illustrated their ability to carve out closer-range opportunities, while the away side’s nine shots from outside the box showed a willingness to test the goalkeeper from distance.
Expected goals told two contrasting stories. El Nacional’s 1.86 xG suggested they created enough quality to have scored at least once, but their actual output of zero goals highlighted a failure to convert. Their goalkeeper made six saves, underlining the volume of work Macara’s attack generated. Macara’s 1.65 xG was backed up by eight shots on target, a more efficient conversion of their chances. The two goals they scored came from that attacking pressure, with the defence contributing six saves of their own to preserve the clean sheet. The corner kick count of eight for El Nacional against five for Macara further indicated home dominance in field position, but it did not translate into goals.
Individual performances were led by Mateo Viera, who earned a match rating of 8.0 for his display in the Macara midfield, contributing the assist for the opening goal. Federico Paz, the scorer of the second goal, followed with 7.7, while defender Nahuel Arena (7.6) and Leonel Álvarez (7.5) also contributed strongly. For El Nacional, Jonathan Borja was the standout with a 7.5 rating, and David Cabezas earned 7.3. The ratings reflected Macara’s collective effectiveness, with three of the top four marks going to their players, while El Nacional’s highest-rated performer still could not lift the side to a positive result.
The result keeps Macara competitive in the Liga Pro regular season, with this away win adding valuable points away from home. For El Nacional, the defeat is a setback, particularly given their own statistical dominance in terms of expected goals and possession. The Lemeister model’s read of a tight match was broadly accurate, projecting a 1-0 away win against the actual 2-0 scoreline. Macara’s efficiency proved the deciding factor, turning a projected narrow victory into a more comfortable final margin, while El Nacional’s failure to convert their xG into goals leaves them reflecting on missed opportunities in a season where every point matters.
