El Nacional secured a 1-0 victory over LDU de Quito in the Liga Pro regular season round 26, a result that defied the underlying numbers. The home side were comprehensively outplayed in terms of possession, shot volume and pass completion, but produced a moment of quality in the first half and then defended with discipline despite playing a man short for over 30 minutes. The Lemeister model had favoured the visitors with a 43% win probability and projected a 1-0 away win, but El Nacional’s resilience overturned that forecast.
The decisive moment arrived in the 16th minute. D. Reasco found the net for El Nacional, with the assist credited to J. Chala. It was a normal goal that gave the home side a lead they would never relinquish. No further scoring occurred, and the match became a test of defensive organisation against pressure. LDU de Quito dominated the ball with 64% possession and attempted 24 total shots to El Nacional’s 14, but they could only put five of those on target, resulting in five saves from the home goalkeeper. El Nacional managed four shots on goal of their own, with the opposition goalkeeper making three saves.
The expected goals story reinforced the one-sided nature of the contest. LDU de Quito generated the bulk of the meaningful chances, with 14 shots from inside the box compared to eight for the home side. However, El Nacional’s defensive block proved effective, with 10 of LDU’s shots being blocked. The visitors also commanded set pieces, earning 13 corner kicks to El Nacional’s four. The passing statistics painted a similar picture: LDU completed 319 of 380 passes at an 84% accuracy rate, while El Nacional managed 145 of 219 at 66%. The home side were far more reliant on direct and disruptive play.
The match changed decisively in the 57th minute when Anthony Bedoya Caicedo received a second yellow card and was sent off. He had already been cautioned in the 39th minute. The red card left El Nacional with 10 men for the final third of the match, yet they absorbed pressure effectively. LDU de Quito, despite their numerical advantage, could not force an equaliser. The visitors’ frustration was evident in the booking count: five yellow cards for LDU, including cautions for Lisandro Alzugaray, Melvin Diaz, Jeison Medina, Bryan Ramirez and Paul Durán. El Nacional received three yellows in addition to the red.
José Flor was the standout performer for El Nacional with a match rating of 8, leading the team in a disciplined defensive display. Jeison Chalá also impressed with a 7.9 rating, playing a key role at both ends. David Cabezas contributed a 7.6 rating. For LDU de Quito, central defender Ricardo Adé and wing-back Leonel Quiñónez both received 7.5 ratings, while Bryan Ramirez matched that figure, but the visitors lacked the cutting edge to break through a determined and well-organised home defence.
The result is significant in the Liga Pro table. El Nacional claimed three valuable points against a strong opponent, proving their ability to defend a lead under extreme pressure. LDU de Quito will be left to reflect on a dominant performance that yielded no reward, with the inefficiency in front of goal and the inability to capitalise on the man advantage proving costly. The defeat disrupts their momentum in the closing stages of the regular season.
