Canada v Mexico

Canada meet Mexico in the CONCACAF Nations League semi-finals at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California. The model makes Canada the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% CAN, 34% draw, 31% MEX.

The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 70%. Attacking output favors Canada on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 22%. Draw no bet leans Canada at 52%; double chance reads Canada or draw 69%, Mexico or draw 66%.

Canada arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Morocco, W 1-0 @ South Africa, L 1-2 @ Switzerland, W 6-0 v Qatar.

Mexico are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v England, W 2-0 v Ecuador, W 3-0 @ Czechia, W 1-0 v South Korea.

Mexico hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Canada 0-2 Mexico.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.