De Graafschap v Excelsior: the model read
De Graafschap meet Excelsior in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 29 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Doetinchem. The model makes Excelsior the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 34% DE , 28% draw, 39% EXC.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 53%. Attacking output favors De Graafschap on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 79%, over 2.5 goals around 83%. Draw no bet leans Excelsior at 54%; double chance reads De Graafschap or draw 61%, Excelsior or draw 66%.
De Graafschap arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 10 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: L 3-6 v Telstar, L 1-2 v AEK Athens FC, L 2-7 @ Heerenveen, W 2-1 @ Utrecht.
Excelsior are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ NAC Breda, W 2-0 @ Dordrecht, W 3-2 v Cambuur, W 3-2 @ Sparta Rotterdam.
De Graafschap hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: De Graafschap 2-1 Excelsior.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
