Comunicaciones overturned a first-half deficit to beat Sportivo Italiano 2-1 at Estadio Alfredo Ramos in Primera B Metropolitana Clausura round 14, a result that hinged on the timing of their finishing. The Lemeister model had forecast a draw as the most likely outcome, with a 34 per cent probability, and the three home sides were projected as even, making the winner deep in stoppage time a narrow departure from its pre-match read. Without detailed match statistics such as possession, shots or expected goals, the narrative is carried by the goal timings and the contributions of the three nameable players in the available data.
Sportivo Italiano struck first in the 13th minute through M. Sosa, who scored a normal goal with no assist listed. The lead lasted only three minutes. Comunicaciones equalised in the 16th minute when T. Díaz Grassano found the net, also a normal goal and without a creator recorded in the data. The score remained level for the remainder of regulation time, with neither side able to force a decisive advantage until the 94th minute, when M. Tunessi scored to complete the turnaround. All three goals were normal goals with no assists, and the away side could not hold their early lead beyond a brief period.
The Lemeister model had projected a draw as the favourite outcome at 34 per cent, with home and away probabilities both at 33 per cent. The actual result, a home win by a single goal, aligns with the model's assessment of a tightly contested fixture but represents a late swing away from its central forecast. The absence of statistical detail means the match cannot be analysed through possession shares or shot counts, but the sequence of goals suggests Comunicaciones absorbed the early blow and responded quickly, then persisted until the final moments.
The disciplinary record shows no cards were issued to either side, indicating a match that did not require refereeing intervention despite its late drama. Substitution counts favoured Comunicaciones, who made five changes to Sportivo Italiano's three. That greater depth of substitutions may have contributed to the home side's ability to sustain pressure into stoppage time, though the available data does not specify which players were introduced or at what minutes. Without passing, pressing or expected goals numbers, the match appears to have been defined by its decisive finishing moments rather than territorial control.
M. Sosa was the standout performer for Sportivo Italiano, scoring the opener and giving his side the early advantage. For Comunicaciones, T. Díaz Grassano delivered the equaliser that restored parity, and M. Tunessi provided the stoppage-time winner that earned the three points. Their match ratings are not included in the available data, so individual performance cannot be assessed beyond the goals themselves. The absence of rating data leaves a gap in evaluating who else may have contributed to the outcome through defensive work or creative passing.
The result gives Comunicaciones a victory that could improve their standing in the Clausura table, while Sportivo Italiano will regret conceding twice after taking the lead, especially the winner in added time. The Lemeister model's projection of a draw was close to the mark, the difference being a single moment from M. Tunessi in the 94th minute. The match was tight, with no cards and low substitution counts, and it delivered a narrow home win that the model's probabilities had suggested was the least likely of the three outcomes.
