Al-Nassr secured a 1-0 victory over Al Shorta in the Arab Club Champions Cup semi-finals in Abha, a result that was tighter than their status as pre-match favourites suggested. The Lemeister model had given Al-Nassr a 44 per cent win probability and projected a 2-1 scoreline, but the actual outcome was a single-goal margin decided by a penalty, underscoring a contest that was more attritional than the forecast anticipated.
The only goal arrived in the 75th minute, a penalty converted by Cristiano Ronaldo. No assister was recorded, and the goal type confirms the decisive moment came from the spot. That meant Al Shorta’s defence committed a critical error inside their own area, and Ronaldo’s conversion proved sufficient as Al-Nassr’s defence held firm for the remainder of the match. The goal was the difference on the scoreboard, and without a full breakdown of shots, possession or passing statistics, the match ratings provide the clearest insight into individual performance and how the game unfolded.
Sadio Mané was the highest-rated player on the pitch at 8.6, indicating he was the most influential attacking force for Al-Nassr. His rating suggests he consistently created problems for Al Shorta’s defence, perhaps stretching them wide or drawing fouls, even if he did not score or provide the assist. Al Shorta’s goalkeeper, Ahmed Basil, earned a 7.3, a solid rating that implies he kept his side in the contest with multiple saves, though the exact number is not recorded. Nawaf Al-Aqidi, Al-Nassr’s goalkeeper, also received a 7.3, suggesting he was similarly reliable when called upon, likely making routine interventions rather than spectacular stops.
Defensively, Ali Al-Oujami, Alex Telles and Abdullah Alkhaibari each posted a 7.3 rating. This consistency across the back line and midfield suggests Al-Nassr’s shape was difficult to break down, with no defender rated below that benchmark. Al Shorta, by contrast, had no player rated above 7.3, indicating a lack of individual brilliance to trouble Al-Nassr’s organised defence. The absence of any cards in the match points to a disciplined contest, with both sides avoiding the kind of indiscipline that could have shifted momentum. The home side used all four substitutions, as did Al-Nassr, but without names attached to those changes, it is not possible to assess their impact.
The narrow victory confirms Al-Nassr’s reliance on a single clinical moment from Ronaldo. The Lemeister model had favoured them at 44 per cent, but the 1-0 scoreline reflects a match where both defences dominated proceedings and clear-cut chances were at a premium. Al Shorta may have enjoyed spells of possession or created half-opportunities, but the ratings suggest they lacked the cutting edge to breach Al-Nassr’s back line. The goalkeeper ratings being equal at 7.3 for both sides reinforces the sense of a tight contest where neither team overwhelmed the other.
The result means Al-Nassr advance to the final of the Arab Club Champions Cup, a significant achievement in a competition that pits regional rivals against each other. For Al Shorta, elimination at the semi-final stage ends their run, but the narrow margin of defeat shows they were competitive against a side that was favoured by the Lemeister model. Al-Nassr will now prepare for the final, knowing that their victory was built on defensive solidity and a single piece of decisive execution from their most experienced player. The model’s projection of a 2-1 win proved optimistic in terms of scoring volume, but accurate in predicting the eventual winner.
