Shabab Al Ghazieh v Al Ahed: the model read
Shabab Al Ghazieh meet Al Ahed in the Federation Cup group stage - 3 at Al Safa SC Stadium, Beirut. The model makes Al Ahed the most likely outcome at 50%, with the full read 21% SHA, 28% draw, 50% AL .
Al Ahed rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1528 to 1400. Recent form leans Al Ahed, 53% against 18%. Attacking output favors Al Ahed on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 55%. Draw no bet leans Al Ahed at 70%; double chance reads Shabab Al Ghazieh or draw 50%, Al Ahed or draw 79%.
Shabab Al Ghazieh arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 2 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Jwaaya FC, L 1-4 v Reyady Abaseya, L 0-3 v Shabab Al Sahel, L 0-1 @ Bourj.
Al Ahed are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Al Ansar, L 0-2 @ Jwaaya FC, L 0-2 v Al Nejmeh, D 3-3 @ Al Ansar.
Al Ahed hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 0 across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Al Ahed 3-1 Shabab Al Ghazieh.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
