Atletico Paranaense came from behind twice to beat Coritiba 3-2 at the Arena da Baixada on Sunday, a result that was far more comfortable than the scoreline suggests. The Lemeister model had given the hosts a 38 per cent chance of victory, projecting a 1-0 win, but the data shows a one-sided contest defined by overwhelming territorial and creative dominance. Atletico Paranaense finished with 66 per cent possession, outshot Coritiba 26 to 7, and accumulated expected goals of 3.13 against 0.32, meaning the narrow margin was a clear under-representation of their superiority.
Coritiba struck first in the 20th minute through M. Moreno, who scored without an assist and gave the visitors a lead against the run of play. That goal came from one of only seven total shots Coritiba would manage all match, and one of three on target. The away side's defensive work was already under strain before the break: Marcelino Moreno was booked in the 21st minute, Bruno Gomes in the 30th, and Marcos Vinicius in the 40th, three yellow cards that reflected the pressure applied by a home side completing 589 passes at 83 per cent accuracy. Atletico Paranaense had 17 shots from inside the box across the match, but went into half-time trailing.
The equaliser arrived four minutes into the second half, Pablo scoring from a Fernando assist. That goal was Atletico Paranaense's seventh shot of the half, and the pressure did not relent. Yet Coritiba, having offered almost nothing in attack after their opener, regained the lead in the 66th minute through Robson, assisted by Ze Roberto. The goal came from Coritiba's second shot on target, meaning they had converted both of their meaningful attempts. Atletico Paranaense's goalkeeper was forced into only one save all evening, underscoring how little Coritiba created beyond their two goals.
Atletico Paranaense's control was absolute in most attacking metrics: they took 26 shots, with seven on target, four blocked and 15 off target, and earned four corners to Coritiba's one. They attempted 589 passes to 309, completing 83 per cent against the visitors' 68 per cent. Fernando, who provided the assist for the equaliser and was also booked in the 63rd minute, recorded a match rating of 7.3. Despite their dominance, the hosts needed a late push to turn the match. Substitute Willian scored in the 91st minute, with Vitor Roque providing the assist, and then A. Canobbio completed the comeback in the 97th minute, assisted by Erick. Those two stoppage-time goals finally gave the scoreline some reflection of the chance creation.
Thiago Heleno was the standout performer, earning a match rating of 8 for a defensive display that limited Coritiba to three shots on target despite conceding twice. Robson, despite playing for the losing side, rated 7.9 for his goal and his overall attacking contribution. A. Canobbio received a 7.6 for his stoppage-time winner, while Erick and Pablo both rated 7.5. The breadth of ratings across the home side shows a team that performed consistently well, not relying on a single individual.
The win moves Atletico Paranaense to six points from six matches in the Serie A season, while Coritiba remain on four points. The data-heavy control Atletico Paranaense showed suggests that if they can sustain this level of chance creation, the results should follow with more consistency. For Coritiba, the defensive resilience that kept them in the match for so long was ultimately undone by an inability to produce attacking opportunities beyond two moments of clinical finishing.
