Tunisia v Japan

Tunisia meet Japan in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group f at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey. The model makes Japan the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 27% TUN, 30% draw, 42% JPN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1790 to 1900, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Japan, 72% against 58%. Attacking output favors Japan on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Tunisia 0-1 Japan, from expected goals of 0.8 to 1.7.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 46%. Draw no bet leans Japan at 61%; double chance reads Tunisia or draw 58%, Japan or draw 73%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.