Senegal v Iraq

Senegal meet Iraq in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group i at BMO Field, Toronto. The model makes Senegal the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% SEN, 30% draw, 27% IRQ.

Senegal rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1850 to 1700. Recent form leans Senegal, 66% against 54%. Attacking output favors Senegal on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Senegal 1-0 Iraq, from expected goals of 1.7 to 0.8.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Senegal at 61%; double chance reads Senegal or draw 73%, Iraq or draw 58%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.