France v Spain

France meet Spain in the FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal at Dallas Stadium, Arlington. The model makes Spain the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% FRA, 30% draw, 37% ESP.

The baseline ratings are close, 2060 to 2080, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 74% against 80%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.9 per match.

Model score projection: most likely France 0-1 Spain, from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.5.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans Spain at 54%; double chance reads France or draw 63%, Spain or draw 68%.

The market prices FRA at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on Spain: a 6.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 68 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.