Colombia v Portugal

Colombia meet Portugal in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group k at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens. The model makes Portugal the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% COL, 30% draw, 37% POR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1920 to 2010, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 70% against 74%. Attacking output favors Portugal on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Colombia 0-1 Portugal, from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.5.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Portugal at 54%; double chance reads Colombia or draw 63%, Portugal or draw 68%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.