Canada v Qatar

Canada meet Qatar in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group b at BC Place, Vancouver. The model makes Canada the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% CAN, 30% draw, 27% QAT.

The baseline ratings are close, 1840 to 1730, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Canada, 64% against 52%. Attacking output favors Canada on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.0 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Canada 1-0 Qatar, from expected goals of 1.8 to 0.9.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Canada at 61%; double chance reads Canada or draw 73%, Qatar or draw 57%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.