Australia v Türkiye

Australia meet Türkiye in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group d at BC Place, Vancouver. The model makes Türkiye the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 34% AUS, 30% draw, 36% TUR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1810 to 1850, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 62% against 66%. Attacking output favors Türkiye on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.3 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Australia 0-1 Türkiye, from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.4.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans Türkiye at 52%; double chance reads Australia or draw 64%, Türkiye or draw 66%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.