Balma v Castanet: the model read
Balma meet Castanet in the National 3 - Group H occitanie - 23 at Stade Nicolas Campailla, Balma.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 45%. Attacking output favors Balma on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 40%. Draw no bet leans Castanet at 51%; double chance reads Balma or draw 65%, Castanet or draw 67%.
Balma arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 11 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Beziers, L 0-1 v Montpellier II, W 5-4 @ Salinieres Aigues Mortes, W 2-1 v Castanet.
Castanet are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Toulouse II, L 0-1 @ SAG Cestas, W 2-0 v Agde, L 1-2 @ Colomiers.
Balma hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: Balma 2-1 Castanet.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
