Sport Chavelines Juniors overturned a two-goal deficit to defeat Deportivo Coopsol 3-2 in the Copa Bicentenario Round of 16 at the Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno. The result was a surprise to the Lemeister model, which had given Deportivo Coopsol a 39 per cent win probability and forecast a 1-0 away victory. The decisive moments came from Sport Chavelines' response before half-time and a disciplined second-half showing, while the visitors were ultimately undone by a red card that swung the momentum.
Deportivo Coopsol began with control and took the lead from the spot in the 17th minute. I. Kahn converted the penalty after a card was shown to Sport Chavelines' F. Caytuiro in the same minute. The visitors doubled their advantage in the 37th minute when L. Aguirre scored a normal goal. At that point the match seemed to be following the model's projection, but Sport Chavelines struck back before the interval. R. Alzamora pulled one back in the 43rd minute, giving the home side a platform for a second-half revival.
The match turned decisively in the 56th minute when F. E. Espinoza Vega equalised for Sport Chavelines. Less than 15 minutes later, the game broke open again. In the 67th minute, a double red-card incident saw L. Aguirre sent off for Deportivo Coopsol and F. E. Espinoza Vega dismissed for Sport Chavelines. That left both sides with ten men, but Deportivo Coopsol had lost their goalscorer. M. Ruidias, who had come off the bench, restored the visitors' lead in the 69th minute with a normal goal, making it 3-2. However, the numerical disadvantage told as Deportivo Coopsol could not protect their advantage in the remaining 20 minutes plus stoppage time.
The statistical picture was shaped as much by the cards as by the flow of play. Sport Chavelines collected three yellow cards in the first 62 minutes to Deportivo Coopsol's single caution, but the sending-offs were the key inflection points. Deportivo Coopsol also saw yellow cards for J. Palacios in the 80th minute and B. Aburto in the 90th, indicating a side that struggled to manage the game late on. With no shots or possession data provided, the story of the match rests on the sequence of goals and the discipline record. The home side's ability to recover from two deficits, even after losing a player of their own, was the defining characteristic.
The standout performers in terms of influence were the scorers. I. Kahn's penalty gave Deportivo Coopsol an early foothold, while L. Aguirre's goal and eventual red card encapsulated a chaotic night for the visitors. For Sport Chavelines, R. Alzamora's goal before half-time was the crucial momentum shift, and F. E. Espinoza Vega both equalised and was sent off, making his involvement a double-edged one. M. Ruidias's goal from the bench kept Deportivo Coopsol ahead, but the defensive unit could not hold.
The result puts Sport Chavelines Juniors into the quarter-finals of the Copa Bicentenario. For Deportivo Coopsol, who entered as slight favourites according to the Lemeister model, this represents an early exit from a competition where they would have expected to progress. The match was a reminder that discipline and the ability to withstand adversity are as decisive as the pre-match projections.
