Where the market is wrong on Tivoli Gardens v Chapelton
Tivoli Gardens meet Chapelton in the Premier League regular season - 3 at Edward Seaga Sports Complex, Kingston.
The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 43%. Attacking output favors Chapelton on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.
Tivoli Gardens arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Chapelton, D 1-1 @ Treasure Beach, W 3-0 v Humble Lions, L 0-3 @ Portmore United.
Chapelton are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Tivoli Gardens, W 2-1 v Molynes United, L 0-2 @ Montego Bay United, L 2-7 v Arnett Gardens.
The market prices TIV at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Chapelton: a 6.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 67 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
