Where the market is wrong on Uzbekistan W v China W
Uzbekistan W meet China W in the Asian Games Women group stage - 2 at Nagaragawa Stadium, Gifu.
The baseline ratings are close, 1565 to 1589, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 58% against 61%. Attacking output favors Uzbekistan W on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.2 per match.
Uzbekistan W arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v China W, D 1-1 @ Philippines W, L 0-1 @ Thailand W, W 1-0 @ Myanmar W.
China W are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Uzbekistan W, W 5-1 v Hong Kong W, W 3-0 v Vietnam W, L 0-1 v Russia W.
The market prices UZB at 4% implied. Our number sits apart on Uzbekistan W: a 34.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
