Where the market is wrong on Saguntino v Navalcarnero
Saguntino meet Navalcarnero in the Copa Federacion round of 16.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Saguntino, 57% against 48%. Attacking output favors Navalcarnero on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Saguntino arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Crevillente, L 0-4 v Navalcarnero, L 0-1 v Villarreal III, L 0-1 @ Ontinyent 1931.
Navalcarnero are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 11 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Conquense, W 4-0 @ Saguntino, D 2-2 @ Atlético Tordesillas, W 2-1 v Real Ávila.
Navalcarnero hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Saguntino 0-4 Navalcarnero.
The market prices SAG at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Saguntino: a 3.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
