Kuwait v Iraq

Kuwait meet Iraq in the Gulf Cup of Nations group stage - 2 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Jeddah.

Iraq rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1400. Recent form leans Iraq, 55% against 26%. Attacking output favors Kuwait on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.0 per match.

Kuwait arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Oman, L 2-3 v Iraq, L 0-1 @ Saudi Arabia, D 2-2 @ Thailand.

Iraq are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Saudi Arabia, W 3-2 @ Kuwait, D 1-1 v Oman, L 0-5 @ Senegal.

Iraq hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Kuwait 2-3 Iraq.

The market prices KUW at 15% implied. Our number sits apart on Kuwait: a 16.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.