Where the market is wrong on Yemen U20 v Cambodia U20
Yemen U20 meet Cambodia U20 in the AFC U20 Asian Cup group stage - 1 at Morodok Techo National Sports Complex, Phnom Penh.
The baseline ratings are close, 1473 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Cambodia U20, 63% against 46%. Attacking output favors Cambodia U20 on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 60%, over 2.5 goals around 57%. Draw no bet leans Yemen U20 at 52%; double chance reads Yemen U20 or draw 67%, Cambodia U20 or draw 63%.
Yemen U20 arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ India U20, D 0-0 @ India U20, L 1-3 @ Saudi Arabia U20, W 2-0 v Oman U20.
Cambodia U20 are steady: 2W-1D-1L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Chinese Taipei U20, W 1-0 @ Bahrain U20, L 0-7 v Uzbekistan U20, W 4-1 @ Nepal U20.
The market prices YEM at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Cambodia U20: a 11.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
