Where the market is wrong on Lille v Real Betis
Lille meet Real Betis in the UEFA Champions League league stage - 1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 65%. Attacking output favors Real Betis on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Lille arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 13 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Paris Saint Germain, W 2-0 @ Angers, D 1-1 @ Everton, D 2-2 @ Hamburger SV.
Real Betis are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-5 @ Levante, W 1-0 @ Valencia, W 1-0 v Real Sociedad, L 0-1 @ Inter.
The market prices LIL at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
