Where the market is wrong on Adelaide Olympic v Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Olympic meet Adelaide Victory in the South Australia State League 1 quarter-finals.
The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Adelaide Olympic, 68% against 53%. Attacking output favors Adelaide Olympic on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 66%, over 2.5 goals around 74%. Draw no bet leans Adelaide Olympic at 62%; double chance reads Adelaide Olympic or draw 73%, Adelaide Victory or draw 55%.
Adelaide Olympic arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 12 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Adelaide Victory, L 0-1 v Adelaide Raiders, W 2-0 @ Cumberland United, W 2-0 @ Adelaide Cobras.
Adelaide Victory are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Adelaide Olympic, W 3-1 @ South Adelaide Panthers, L 2-4 @ Eastern United, W 2-0 v Salisbury United.
The market prices ADE at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Adelaide Olympic: a 4.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 64 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
