Where the market is wrong on Udinese v Venezia
Udinese meet Venezia in the Coppa Italia round of 32 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udine.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Venezia, 70% against 53%. Attacking output favors Venezia on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans Venezia at 61%; double chance reads Udinese or draw 57%, Venezia or draw 72%.
Udinese arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Monza, D 1-1 v Como, W 1-0 v Padova, W 1-0 v Barcelona.
Venezia are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ AC Milan, L 0-2 v Lecce, W 3-2 v Modena, D 2-2 @ Stade Brestois 29.
Udinese hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Udinese 3-2 Venezia.
The market prices UDI at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Venezia: a 18.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
