Where the market is wrong on Club Nacional v Progreso
Club Nacional meet Progreso in the Primera División clausura - 3 at Gran Parque Central, Montevideo.
Club Nacional rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1523 to 1400. Recent form leans Club Nacional, 50% against 25%. Attacking output favors Club Nacional on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 33%. Draw no bet leans Club Nacional at 59%; double chance reads Club Nacional or draw 72%, Progreso or draw 60%.
Club Nacional arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Progreso, L 0-2 @ Racing Montevideo, L 1-2 v Boston River, W 2-1 v Progreso.
Progreso are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 2 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Club Nacional, L 0-2 v Deportivo Maldonado, L 0-1 @ Central Espanol, L 1-2 @ Club Nacional.
Club Nacional hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Club Nacional 1-0 Progreso.
The market prices CLU at 64% implied. Our number sits apart on Progreso: a 13.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
