Where the market is wrong on Cardiff v Norwich
Cardiff meet Norwich in the League Cup round of 64 at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 57%. Attacking output favors Cardiff on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 62%. Draw no bet leans Cardiff at 52%; double chance reads Cardiff or draw 66%, Norwich or draw 64%.
Cardiff arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Norwich, D 2-2 @ Derby, D 1-1 v Wrexham, W 3-2 v Swindon Town.
Norwich are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Cardiff, L 0-3 @ Millwall, L 1-2 v West Brom, W 4-1 v Milton Keynes Dons.
Norwich hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 2 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cardiff 1-2 Norwich.
The market prices CAR at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
