Where the market is wrong on Internacional v Gremio
Internacional meet Gremio in the Copa Do Brasil quarter-finals.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1504, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 50%. Attacking output favors Gremio on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 41%. Draw no bet leans Gremio at 50%; double chance reads Internacional or draw 66%, Gremio or draw 66%.
Internacional arrive patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 2 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Gremio, D 0-0 v Atletico-MG, D 1-1 v Remo, D 0-0 @ Palmeiras.
Gremio are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Internacional, L 0-1 @ RB Bragantino, L 0-3 @ Atletico-MG, W 2-1 v Sao Paulo.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 6 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Internacional 0-0 Gremio.
The market prices INT at 51% implied. Our number sits apart on Gremio: a 14.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
