Where the market is wrong on Cruzeiro v Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro meet Atletico-MG in the Copa Do Brasil quarter-finals.
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1613, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 70% against 68%. Attacking output favors Cruzeiro on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 37%, over 2.5 goals around 29%. Draw no bet leans Atletico-MG at 50%; double chance reads Cruzeiro or draw 66%, Atletico-MG or draw 66%.
Cruzeiro arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Atletico-MG, W 2-1 v Flamengo, L 1-2 @ Flamengo, W 2-1 @ Corinthians.
Atletico-MG are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Cruzeiro, D 0-0 @ Internacional, D 2-2 v RB Bragantino, W 3-0 v Gremio.
The market prices CRU at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Atletico-MG: a 11.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
